Media report 2, the secretary general of the China engineering machinery industry association revealed that the "12th five-year plan" of the construction machinery industry has been reported to the relevant departments of the state and will be released in July.We believe that the announcement of the 12th five-year plan of the industry will indicate the direction for the development of the construction machinery in the next five years, which will enhance the confidence of the market in the long-term growth of the construction machinery.
1) industry as a whole will continue to achieve stable growth: "twelfth five-year" final, namely the construction machinery industry in 2015 sales revenue is expected to reach 900 billion yuan, an average annual compound growth rate of 17%, among them, the industry's exports will reach $26 billion, exports accounted for nearly 20%.Although the growth rate of the industry has slowed significantly during the 12th five-year plan period, compared with the growth rate of 21.3% and 28.1% in 2001-05, 2006 and 2010.But we believe that after the peak growth over the last ten years, the market generally engineering machinery market is saturated, difficult to achieve a growth, and the policy of "twelfth five-year" plan will be to a certain extent, enhance market confidence in the engineering machinery long-term growth space.
2) the product growth performance will embody bigger difference: look from the industry association of 12 kinds of products, the benefit from the penetration of ascension, tower cranes and represented by concrete pump truck, concrete mixer truck concrete machinery in the next five years the average annual compound growth rate is expected to reach more than 15%;Wheel crane, crawler crane, grader and paver are expected to achieve steady growth, with annual compound growth rate of over 10% over the next five years.In the future, the average compound growth rate will only maintain the single-digit growth rate.
3) the development of core components will be promoted to a new height: the development of critical basic components is the bottleneck that restricts the long-term competitiveness of China's engineering machinery.In the past ten years, the market demand has been strong, and the enterprise has focused on the rapid expansion of the main engine capacity to meet the market demand, and the development of key components and basic technologies has lagged behind.As the "twelfth five-year" period, we think, industry competition, the core parts of research work is expected to be promoted to a new height, is expected to form a government leading, the led industry association, the enterprise leading joint breakthrough, so as to realize a leap;
4) industry restructuring mergers and acquisitions is expected to accelerate, we believe that with a new round of expansion since 2010, the excess capacity in the middle and later periods of the "twelfth five-year" can be the key factors which restrict the development of the market.In the next five years, industry leading enterprises is expected to use their own advantages, realize product line through mergers and acquisitions and the expansion of the market layout, backward in the market competition mechanism and low level repeated construction, industry concentration will be significantly increased.